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Ten years after the UK entered into a hasty public vote that polarised the country and triggered chaos, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is ready.

That conveys the caution from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially tense and seismic public vote.

"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."

Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate

The duo have examined the political, financial and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.

"What troubles everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.

"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly split population where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."

Governmental Mandate

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is imminent, and a group named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there will be a national vote.

Insufficient Substantive Discussion

Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has masked the lack of serious debate, said McBride.

"Many are for or against the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in universities but hardly any elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Federal?"

Publication's Method

In the publication, neither author advocates unification or the status quo. Both writes two essays that aim for impartiality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument against, assembling economic and social statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.

Debates cover identity markers, levies, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and encourage conversation.

"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the idea that there could be valid points on either side."

Dual Referendums

A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they prefer unity but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to recognise unionists' British culture.

"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.

Possibility of Referendum

McBride believes a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless official who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"

Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified arguments, he commented. "Somebody will succeed here and the other side will in the end lose but both parties has possesses important lessons to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."

Call for More Extensive Discussion

Westminster should participate in the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."